Tweets

@glpatterson @typeoneerror 😂

@ianlandsman https://twitter.com/alexisgoldstein/status/1354605363287486466?s=21

@ianlandsman Have you read this one yet?

@tranhelen 🤣

@titusparr_ lol

Took some photos on my walk to the office today. #vernonbc

@evanpro Also: the hedge funds are still winning. https://twitter.com/alexisgoldstein/status/1354605363287486466

@MattDickeyMan Thanks!

@tylertringas And... the hedge funds are still winning. https://twitter.com/alexisgoldstein/status/1354605363287486466

@Casey @RobinhoodApp @public Also, be aware that hedge funds are still winning here. https://twitter.com/alexisgoldstein/status/1354605363287486466

@r00k Talk to @DCoulbourne!

@shaig @kwuchu My prediction: they won’t take off this year.

@ramsey Yes. And, as Alexis describes here, the hedge funds are still winning. https://twitter.com/alexisgoldstein/status/1354605363287486466

@myfriendjanine I also really appreciated Alexis’ piece:

https://twitter.com/alexisgoldstein/status/1354605363287486466?s=21

@josek_net Thanks for sharing it!

@Stphn_Lacey Thanks Stephen!

@nickfrosty @TransistorFM Thanks. 🙌

@alex_sugg Thanks Alex!

@scottmathson @JamesCridland Yup 👍

@HeyHeyESJ Thanks Eric!

Just compiled all my thoughts here:

https://justinjackson.ca/podcasts-and-capital

@Ben_Kuebrich Are you saying FB/YT ads are “good” and “not scammy?” 😉

The biggest point to consider is: who gains leverage when there’s a centralized ad platform?

So glad @iamashley is back podcasting!

https://overcast.fm/+McFE8ZVwY

@mikecodemonkey @buildyoursaas @jonbuda So far, it feels like we have a pretty good network, and we’ve been able to hire contract developers (mostly friends).

For redundancy, I have a bunch of folks I can call on. 👍

@evoterra Appreciate it. (And appreciate your thoughts + care for podcasting)

@evoterra save this link for later and tell me what you think. 😉

https://justinjackson.ca/podcasts-and-capital

@MattGiovanisci Old habits (and media consumption patterns) die hard.

If radio is still doing "the job to be done" there's no reason to switch.

Just published all my thoughts here:

"Podcasts and capital"

https://justinjackson.ca/podcasts-and-capital

@jsullivan47 Thanks John.

Full blog post is here:

https://justinjackson.ca/podcasts-and-capital

@AWaselnuk Thanks! Just published it here:

https://justinjackson.ca/podcasts-and-capital

@Clogish Thanks! Just published the full blog post:

https://justinjackson.ca/podcasts-and-capital

@jodyavirgan Thanks Jody!

(Happy to be challenged on anything I might have gotten wrong)

Full blog post is up now:
https://justinjackson.ca/podcasts-and-capital

@jaykaydee Happy to be challenged on this, but from what I know, Spotify’s costs keep going up:

"in 2019, Spotify’s revenue increased 26% YoY while royalty payments increased by 30%. The YoY increase in royalty payments is up from the 20% YoY increase in 2018.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/10/13/it-sounds-like-spotify-is-in-trouble/?sh=786fff94813b

@ogrover Thanks Owen.

Full blog post is up now:
https://justinjackson.ca/podcasts-and-capital

@erikd Thanks Erik.

I’m open to having my worldview challenged. 😉

Full blog post is up now:
https://justinjackson.ca/podcasts-and-capital

@webby2001 Thanks Tom.

Always open to having my worldview challenged. 😉

Full blog post is up now:
https://justinjackson.ca/podcasts-and-capital

@scottmathson @JackRhysider Yup. We’ve already seen this on YouTube.

When you own the “means of distribution” you can apply downard pressure on creators, who are forced to compete for a smaller and smaller piece of revenue.

@sgatz There’s still not much algorithmic sorting for podcasts.

Getting featured on Apple is still mostly an editorial decision (anyone can submit a request to their team).

Increases in listenership is still primarily driven by WoM, ads, social, tapping into existing audienes, etc.

@nikstep @ichverstehe @TransistorFM Update: wasn't able to replicate this bug.

@nikstep @ichverstehe @TransistorFM Hey! Testing this out now. 🎧

@Clogish Thanks for sharing it!

@StephenAfamO Yup. 🎯

@scottmathson @JamesCridland @HighFiveRPG @theDanielJLewis How do I join this Slack?

I believe we’ll see an increasing amount of “Clubhouse burnout:”

- hosting a room takes hours of time (my guess is the average is at least 3 hours)
- paradoxically: as more participants join a room the less opportunity for participation there is
- “marketers ruin everything”

I enjoy conversations on Clubhouse and Twitter Spaces, but I think folks are too bullish on the format.

@heycpj Old habits (and media formats) die hard.

Predictions about Clubhouse vs podcasts:

1. Podcast listeners increases by ~20% in 2021.

2. Social audio won’t be widely adopted in 2021. Will be primarily used by early adopters, but not the general population.

3. Once the pandemic ends, social audio app usage will diminish.

Let’s talk about “social audio apps” (like Clubhouse):

I’m still not convinced that social audio will replace (or significantly reduce) podcast listening.

It’s less “audio entertainment” and more “networking/social event.”

I think it competes more with meetups than podcasts.

@SamHarrisOrg thanks for bringing us this conversation with @jgoldsto on inequality.

I found it hope inspiring!

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/232-inequality-and-revolution/id733163012?i=1000506697419

@nbashaw @every @dhh Excited to see what you’re building at @every!

(And we’re big fans of simple Rails [minimal JS] architecture at @TransistorFM too 🙏)

@_will_archer Remember: there’s lots of other competition for small local advertisers.

Spotify isn’t just competing against local radio, but also Facebook ads, Google Ads, YouTube ads, etc.

@thepatwalls Every form of media seems to have some form of “popular vapid content.”

I’m ok with it.

a) sometimes I like a cheesy pop song
b) there are lots of voices on Twitter (and elsewhere) who are driven by curiosity and have substance

We can seek out whichever form we want. 👍

@_will_archer Lots of folks are trying to build the “podcast ad marketplace” (including Spotify (their existing tech + Anchor + Megaphone).

Nobody’s quite cracked it yet.

I wonder if it’s the “local” factor with radio. Are most radio ads sold by local sales reps that understand the market?

@harriskenny Yup.

Increasingly I’m convinced that “natural expansion” is the best type of expansion.

Sustainable.

@_will_archer It’s a good question!

A few thoughts:

1. The “new model” (Anchor’s ad marketplace) has yet to prove that it can attract those advertisers.

2. Do podcasters want those kinds of ads on their shows?

3. Do listeners want those types of ads on the podcasts they listen to?

@Shpigford 💯

@dohertyjf No, because the centralized distribution on platforms like YouTube eventually de-leverages creators.

(Different than traditional SEO on a Google search)

Currently, the front-page recommendations are killing YouTube creators who built a subscriber base (nobody checks that tab).

@arithisandthat Hey! @TransistorFM will donate something. 👍

@stew_hillhouse Work it in what way?

@danielstedman @hnshah Thanks!

@JeffDauler Thanks!

Trust me: “make a podcast so good that people tell their friends about it” is a way better approach than “I hope the platform’s algorithm features my show.”

Discoverability is already working: slow & steady, more and more people are discovering podcasts.

The VCs who want to “fix discoverability” in podcasting don’t give a shit about more people discovering *your* show.

They want to juice the numbers so they get their 100x returns.

I was sitting on a chairlift with a guy who asked me what I do.

“I’m in podcasting.”

“What! No way! I just discovered podcasts. I’ve been listening in the truck all the time.”

A friend recommended a show. He found the @ApplePodcasts app, and listened.

Discovery is working.

@OrchidBertelsen 💯

@michaeldyrynda @ninjaparade @ericlbarnes @mavrck Social audio app. It’s like joining a conference call, live.

https://transistor.fm/spaces-clubhouse/

@jayacunzo Thx. You’re one of the good guys. 👍

Quibi is the perfect case study for overcapitalization.

Injecting $1.75 billion into an industry doesn’t do anyone any good if it’s not sustainable.

Shows get cancelled. People lose jobs. Dreams are dashed.

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2021/01/quibis-1-75b-experiment-ends-with-roku-acquisition-for-less-than-100m/

The negative effects of overcapitalization on podcasting:

- power becomes more centralized in MegaCorps™
- small, indie companies are acquired, or have to shut down
- productions get funding in the near-term, but implode when bubble bursts
- ultimately, people lose their jobs

@petrills The negative effects of overcapitalization on podcasting:

- power becomes more centralized in MegaCorps™
- small, indie companies are acquired, or have to shut down because of competitive pressure
- productions get funding in the near-term, but implode when bubble bursts

I’m worried about overcapitalization.

Investing $1 billion+ into a podcast ecosystem that didn’t have $1 billion in total revenue last year... is a problem.

Overcapitalization has knock-on effects that won’t be good for podcasting.

@AlbumEpitaph Most networks out there actually don’t give you more distribution (which is what you want).

In most cases you’re just signing away a big % of your revenue.

There's a reason creators are leaving platforms like YouTube and going to more open platforms like:

- @SubstackInc, @ConvertKit (email)
- @WordPress, @TryGhost (RSS)
- @podia, @memberful (CSV)

You can take your email list, RSS feed, customer list anywhere. YOU OWN IT.

@billbarol saw your podcasting tweet. Happy to help if you need it!

I originally self-hosted everything, and found that it ended up being:

a) more expensive
b) more difficult

than an all-in-one solution. (Especially when I needed to ad statistics to my stack)

@davatron5000 @poofichu @aside_quest @atxwebshow @TransistorFM Thanks Dave! ❤️

@theothercole I could be wrong about 3 (in some ways, I hope I am because I enjoy using Spaces, Clubhouse, etc).

But, I see a lot of folks motivated to spend time on these platforms because they're in lockdown and lonely.

I'm guessing it will end when folks can socialize IRL.

I'm not opposed to podcasters selling ads.

But I am opposed to one centralized "AdSense for podcasting."

Podcasters: you're giving up all your leverage for low CPM garbage ads!

(Plus: Anchor's experiment in this space is failing).

https://www.theverge.com/2021/1/21/22241066/spotify-anchor-sponsorships-ad-money-spend-podcasting

Currently, podcasters have leverage because they own the connection with their audience.

YouTubers don't have that. They're at the whim of the algorithm and monetization gods.

Trading leverage for "more distribution" is like making a deal with the devil. The devil always wins.

VCs are hungry for there to be a "centralized platform" for podcasting, where "discovery, consumption, and monetization can happen in the same place."

That desire serves no one but VCs and the centralized platform.

One centralized platform = bad for creators.

@HelenZaltzman That's what I'm hoping we can stand against.

I'm not the only one scratching their head at Spotify's podcast spending spree. 🤔

Analysts at CITI aren't impressed: "To date, we haven't seen a material positive inflection in app downloads or Premium subscriptions."

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/15/spotifys-big-bet-on-podcasts-is-failing-citi-says.html

The amount of $$$ being invested into podcasting is puzzling.

In the last 2 years, Spotify has spent $1 billion on podcast acquisitions.

In 2021, ad revenue for the ENTIRE podcast ecosystem is slated to be $1 billion ($782M in 2020).

There's a disconnect here.

@theothercole My predictions:

1. Monthly podcast listeners grows by ~20% in 2021.

2. Social audio won’t be widely adopted in 2021. It’s used primarily by early tech adopters, but won’t break through to the general population.

3. Once the pandemic ends, social audio usage will diminish.

@theothercole I have opinions on that too. 😜

I’m still not convinced that social audio will replace (or significantly reduce) podcast listening.

It’s less “audio entertainment” and more “networking event.”

Also: live entertainment scales in certain niches (video games) but not others.

I believe that:

- Podcasters are producing incredible content.
- Podcast listeners are one of the best audiences in the world.

I'm highly skeptical of any outside source wanting to take these positive attributes, and then "juice them" to get better returns.

Big Money™ investors are hoping podcasting will provide them with YouTube-level returns.

(Sequoia got a 57x return on its $9 million investment in YouTube).

I'm highly skeptical that podcasting is ever going to provide that level of returns.

Audio's growth curve is different.

BTW – I like podcasting's growth curve!

It's sustainable. It's proving that it's not a flash-in-the-pan.

Slow and steady ecosystems are better for creators. You can build a long-lasting, sustainable revenue stream.

(As long as Big Money™ doesn't mess it up)

@JPvideoeditor Exactly. In terms of ad revenue, podcasting is tiny.

Not even 7% of radio's ad revenue!

Podcasting has been growing "slow & steady" for a decade.

Last year "monthly listeners" grew by 15%.

The year before it was 23%.

Before that, it was 8%.

These numbers are healthy but don't represent meteoric growth.

Thoughts on the podcast industry in 2021:

- many folks continue to act as if podcasting is bigger than it really is
- VCs and bigger companies in search of "the next YouTube" fundamentally misunderstand podcasting's growth curve
- folks are way too bullish on Spotify's strategy

@joshmanders @DescriptApp Lol. 99.5%

@joshmanders Yup! I’m a longtime user of @DescriptApp. Great product.

https://app.descript.com/r/HkLbabKnG

@ninjaparade 👏

Accept the hand-up you got, but also pay it forward: provide opportunities and resources for other folks too. https://twitter.com/mijustin/status/961340138415472641

@moh8med Glad you enjoyed it!

I miss @LaraconUS

@rosiesherry Happy birthday!!’ 🎉

I hope you have a great day, and a fantastic year.

@JordanGal CryptoCart?

@mikesimonsen I find that raising the volume works. (It resets both)

@venikunche @DiversifyTechCo Congrats!

RT @mijustin: Many successful bootstrapped startups saw the gaps in existing categories and made something better:

- @usefathom (Google An…

@CasJam @JordanGal @r00k @ianlandsman How much do we have to pay to get early access to that episode?

💰 🎧