Tweets

@joelgascoigne Let me know if you do share those numbers; I'd like to write a piece on this. 👍

@CasJam Yes!!! I love @statamic! 👏👏👏

@ylecun @adamdangelo @ESYudkowsky @TonyZador Yann, why the hyperbole?

In the debate, you say: "Stuart has called me stupid," and then you reference a quote where he doesn't call you stupid?

@adamdangelo @ESYudkowsky @ylecun Dr. Stuart Russell has articulated his concerns as well:

Checking back on the Baremetrics price increase experiment.

After initially increasing MRR (after the price increase), MRR decreased by 22.35%.

Active customers have decreased by 29.14%.

Revenue churn is at 7.30%.

@dvassallo What matters for Gumroad is what % of creators feel the same as you. 😉

Most people who are unhappy don't speak up; they just silently make other plans. (And eventually churn)

This could work out for Gumroad! But you can't tell Month 1; Month 12 should give us a better idea.

@dvassallo Competition will be a main factor.

If folks can get a better deal from a product with similar quality, you might see more leave.

Also: "# of creators" only matters for Gumroad as long as they're selling $$$ that Gumroad can take a % of.

Curious: did avg $ sold/creator change?

It will be interesting to watch Gumroad's price increase and see if their MRR trend holds long-term.

https://twitter.com/dvassallo/status/1641918932893470722

@dvassallo "We'll see."

This could play out positively for Gumroad in the long run.

However, Baremetrics made a similar move:
- looked good in Month 1
- but the long-term effect on MRR has been negative

With SaaS pricing, you only know once you can see the trend. 📈📉

@cgimmer Checking back: it still hasn't stabilized.

https://demo.baremetrics.com/stats/mrr

RT @KeliWestgate: Too good not to share! Lol. @mijustin will appreciate this one 😎

@KeliWestgate Hahahaha. @therealmcwilly just sent me this too.

RT @GaryMarcus: Most of Twitter: It’s stupid to worry about AI risk. Don’t make me wait until Christmas for GPT-5! Let’s get to AGI before…

If you’d like to get my newsletter, you can subscribe here:

https://justinjackson.ca/newsletter

I just sent my bootstrapping newsletter to all my subscribers:

“ChatGPT isn't the startup platform you've been waiting for”

https://justinjackson.ca/chatgpt-business

@jmckinven @TransistorFM Generally, we let you go over a few months before we ask you to upgrade.

@PatFlynn @Zoom Totally. I’ve felt this too.

@jmckinven @TransistorFM Nice! 🤩

@tdinh_me Signed it

RT @vivgui: Hey folks, I'm currently seeking a full-time gig. I'm a frontend dev with 6+ yrs exp in Vue (3 w/ React) & some Laravel. I als…

@valsopi AI development is currently being driven by massive corporations/investors seeking to profit from it.

So far, benefits of innovation and increased productivity have disproportionately accrued to the wealthy, not general members of society.

RT @GaryMarcus: Sure, sure, airplane safety, nuclear safety, accounting standards, fire safety, biosafety. That all makes sense.

But how…

@NesslerBernhard @ylecun ChatGPT disagrees with your assessment.

"AI involves the use of sophisticated algorithms, machine learning techniques, and deep neural networks... advanced concepts in statistics and probability theory, as well as specialized areas of mathematics"

@zackgilbert Keep going! 🙌

@ylecun Yann, this is a faulty analogy.

Our present reality with AI in 2023 is far removed from the situation in 1440.

We're in a much different context (geopolitically, socially, and technologically).

Also, the printing press wasn't a "black box;" the underlying tech was understood.

@danshipper If we're trying (as a society) to get better at weighing the POV of experts, it seems like we can learn from the past here:

Scientists + researchers at FB, oil companies, cigarette companies, etc have proven time and time again that they can't be trusted as a source of truth.

False analogy by Yann here.

Our present reality with AI in 2023 is far removed from the situation in 1440.

We're in a much different context (geopolitically, socially, and technologically).

Also, the printing press wasn't a "black box;" the underlying tech was understood. https://twitter.com/ylecun/status/1641274105503576064

@danshipper Can we really trust folks on the payroll of OpenAI, Meta, and Google to make these decisions without bias?

(Feels like we've been here before, where the researchers at Phillip Morris told us smoking was "fine. nothing to worry about.")

Increasing costs is the big risk of attaching your main value prop to a paid API. https://twitter.com/marckohlbrugge/status/1641383958595379200

Ouch.

Twitter’s new API pricing is going to put lots of indie tools out of business. 😔

https://twitter.com/damengchen/status/1641499887568314368?s=46&t=xyX4ISH1y8eo0WCgQ-duKw

@danshipper Who’s someone trustworthy on the other side of that equation I should be listening to?

RT @marckohlbrugge: Someone plz build a Mastadon API that has the exact same end points as the Twitter API.

Would make it super easy for e…

RT @mijustin: By relying on ChatGPT, startups face the same platform risks they've encountered on Twitter and other centralized platforms.…

@danshipper Curious: some of the folks signing that letter are top AI researchers like Dr. Stuart Russell (Berkeley).

If the folks who wrote the textbooks on AI are concerned now, shouldn’t we pay attention?

@wbetiago This feels more akin to what we saw happen with search: Google Search surprised the world by capturing the consumer market (even though it was built by geeks).

ChatGPT has done something similar with AI: 100+ million users in a matter of weeks!

https://twitter.com/mijustin/status/1641196002672775168

RT @arvidkahl: "There are founders who are getting tax bills that are 466% higher than they anticipated."

This is happening right now to E…

@jmckinven @dagorenouf Sending you lots of ❤️ and 💪 today.

"We have a perfect storm of corporate irresponsibility, widespread adoption, lack of regulation, and a huge number of unknowns." – @GaryMarcus

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/29/technology/ai-artificial-intelligence-musk-risks.html

"Advanced AI could represent a profound change in the history of life on Earth, and should be planned for with commensurate care and resources. Unfortunately, this is not happening."

@garymarcus, ⁦⁦@tegmark, and more sign open letter:

(I signed)

https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/

RT @asmartbear: Programmers kill others’ jobs.

“Y’all learn to code, haha!”

AI kills programmer jobs.

“Aaaaaahh no no slow i…

@Danenania This feels more akin to what we saw happen with search: Google Search surprised the world by capturing the consumer market (even though it was built by geeks).

ChatGPT has done something similar with AI: 100+ million users in a matter of weeks! https://twitter.com/mijustin/status/1641196002672775168

@ntkris Hosting is pretty agnostic.

You can build tools for AWS, Digital Ocean, Azure, etc

(Similar to what @laravelforge and @SnapShooterio did)

Matt has the perfect metaphor for all of this:

(Except, in this case the biggest straw will likely be ChatGPT itself. It’s an API company that accidentally became an insanely popular consumer app) https://twitter.com/mattwensing/status/1641069041187016705

🎯

https://twitter.com/thatroblennon/status/1641201430244769793

The main value prop, API, and underlying tech are all controlled by one entity ("Open"AI)

This represents a massive platform risk.

We've seen this story before: when indie devs built apps on top of Twitter, FB, etc...

That story didn't end well.

https://twitter.com/dfgentile/status/1641199595849134080

@dfgentile The main value prop, API, and underlying tech are all controlled by one entity.

This represents a massive platform risk.

We've seen this story before, when indie devs built apps on top of Twitter, FB, etc...

@dfgentile But, is it small startups that are best equipped to fill that void?

Or will that opportunity just go to bigger, established players (Bing, Wolfram, Zapier, Shopify, Expedia, etc)

@dfgentile If consumers are happy to use the ChatGPT UI (and so far, hundreds of millions are, making it the fastest-growing consumer tech ever), where will the opportunities for small startups be?

Any good interface that a small startup develops could easily be incorporated into ChatGPT.

If you'd rather read this thread as a blog post, that's here:
https://justinjackson.ca/chatgpt-business

(I'll keep updating it as I have more thoughts)

Ultimately, this landscape leaves fewer opportunities for small startups.

We're already seeing this dynamic play out:
https://twitter.com/IAmAaronYang/status/1639237798313054208

Unlike past technological breakthroughs, it's been surprising to see how fast mature companies like Microsoft have been able to incorporate AI/ChatGPT features within their existing apps.

This reduces the demand for intermediary products, often developed by indie bootstrappers.

The remaining opportunities for ChatGPT-based products will likely be integrated into existing products as additional features. With their market share, customer relationships, and use cases, established companies can easily incorporate AI as a value-add.

In reality, many consumers are happy to access ChatGPT directly, bypassing the need for intermediary products.

Typically, markets have a "main product" that captures most of the value in a category, and ChatGPT has emerged as the primary source of value in its domain.

In his article, @benthompson highlights how ChatGPT has become an "accidental consumer tech company:"

https://stratechery.com/2023/the-accidental-consumer-tech-company-chatgpt-meta-and-product-market-fit-aggregation-and-apis/

OpenAI presents a particularly potent version of platform risk.

As consumers increasingly adopt and pay for ChatGPT directly, the platform's influence resembles Google Search more than the Shopify Store.

Already, founders are seeing increased costs with GPT4 vs GPT3:

https://twitter.com/LewisMenelaws/status/1640365795371802624

By relying on ChatGPT, startups face the same platform risks they've encountered on Twitter and other centralized platforms.

They can:

1. Build your product's features into ChatGPT
2. Increase the cost of API access
3. Control who is featured in their plugin store

This brings me to the risks of building your startup on @OpenAI's ChatGPT (or other AI platforms):

OpenAI's ChatGPT is not open. Their source code is closed, and you must pay for API access.

OpenAI also just announced their plugin store, a central marketplace they control.

One thing indie founders learned from Web 2.0 was to be careful about platform risk:

This is where the platform changes its policies, algorithms, or features, which can negatively impact the startups built on it.

Web 2.0 democratized the software industry, giving smaller, bootstrapped companies a unique advantage. Indie founders could differentiate through simpler products, distinctive branding, and creative distribution channels. Usually, the only thing "cost of goods sold" was hosting.

For decades, software startups built on the open web were more agile than their (larger) competition. They could move faster, leverage open source, and deploy new versions seamlessly to the web.

Early bootstrapping successes, such as @37signals, triumphed because of the open web.

Built with Ruby on @rails, accessed through the web browser, and promoted through their blog, @basecamp carved out a thriving business despite competition from giants like Microsoft Project.

Even more important, nearly every SaaS application leverages web browsers as their "platform" for launching their software product.

There are no licensing fees for loading your web app in Chrome, Safari, Edge, or Firefox.

Indie founders used open protocols and open-source tools to level the playing field and give their ideas a chance to succeed.

MailChimp and ConvertKit, for example, harnessed the email protocol without paying a single cent to Gmail or Microsoft for API access or postage fees.

Historically, bootstrapped startups have been built on top of open protocols (such as email, the web, and RSS), open platforms (like WordPress), and open-source tools (including Ruby on Rails, Laravel, Vue, and Tailwind CSS).

More thoughts on why ChatGPT is not a traditional startup platform.

🧵

@JamesCridland @TransistorFM @joshuaanderton Thanks!

@andrewculver @MrBeast Whoa!

@AmirBormand @TransistorFM Just on our built-in pages currently.

@robwalling Just backed it! Can’t wait!

@mariepoulin 😱

@raae @TransistorFM @joshuaanderton Thank you 🥰

@thedannorris I’m often surprised by what resonates.

Often it feels like:

Pieces I spent weeks on 📉
Pieces I wrote in 15 mins 📈

RT @dannypostmaa: Trying, failing, and iterating is the key to success. Double down on what works and discard what doesn't.

RT @JoelKlettke: So far, consensus seems to be that AI is going to widen the gap between the rich and poor. Nothing scientific here, but in…

@sherrywalling @robwalling Looks amazing! 🤩

@TimeMachineDog 👀

@jwaldeck @arvidkahl Thanks!

@bradsimantel @TransistorFM @joshuaanderton We should tie they up!

I did write about “what happened to meeps” here:

https://justinjackson.ca/2022-review

@thejonotron Haha. We might need to vote on that in Slack!

@r00k I really liked @adamwathan’s idea of “auditioning vs interviewing” a potential employee. 👍

@thatroblennon @TransistorFM @joshuaanderton Thanks! 🙌

@tylertringas YES!

Legislation!

We can enact guardrails (now) to ensure the worst stuff doesn't happen.

https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23621198/artificial-intelligence-chatgpt-openai-existential-risk-china-ai-safety-technology

When the Transistor team assembles...

@stephenrobles @TransistorFM @joshuaanderton He's already helped so much; it will be awesome building new stuff with him now that he's full-time!

Here's the news! 🎉

https://twitter.com/mijustin/status/1640472931364143104

Some of the most thoughtful pieces I've read on AI and technology come from @inevernu's newsletter.

If you care about responsible and ethical tech, you should subscribe:

https://sentiers.media/hard-to-believe+metaverse-not-a-place+slowing-down-ai-no-257/

@joshuaanderton 🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳

💯 "Pumping the brakes on artificial intelligence could be the best thing we ever do for humanity."

https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23621198/artificial-intelligence-chatgpt-openai-existential-risk-china-ai-safety-technology

@aarondfrancis @TransistorFM @joshuaanderton 🤣 We're HJJJJ

Jon and I don't hire very often at @TransistorFM.

@HelenRyles and @jsonperl both joined us FT in 2021.

And now, @joshuaanderton is coming aboard in 2023.

We've already benefitted so much from Josh's work.

Can't wait to see what we can all do together as a team of 5! 💪

@marcelladotco @TransistorFM @joshuaanderton Thanks! Josh has got a great ❤️.

It's going to be so awesome having him on the team.

@EmmettNaughton @TransistorFM @joshuaanderton Yes! We've already benefitted so much from Josh's work.

Can't wait to see what we can all do together as a team of 5.

@ChilliDoor @TransistorFM @joshuaanderton He's already made some big contributions!

It will be nice to have more of his time and energy. 🎯

@JackEllis @TransistorFM @joshuaanderton When the Transistor team assembles...

Here's the @TransistorFM news:

@joshuaanderton is joining the team full-time! 🥳

He's been helping us as a part-time contractor since Oct 2022. It's clear he gives us web dev superpowers and we're excited to have him on board FT! 🎉

https://transistor.fm/josh/

@erwblo @nocodelife @tillkruss @taylorotwell Nope, in podcasting, "hosting" is one of the main things in the value chain.

If you ask podcasters what they spend their money on (ongoing expenses) it is almost always:

"Remote recording software + hosting"

@flowdee @TransistorFM Nope! Even better.

@ChilliDoor @TransistorFM Hahaha. Nope.

I've got some exciting @TransistorFM news to share shortly... 👀