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@SweatingCommas Lol. I'm sure Plato's Unified Theory of Santa Claus is somewhere in here.

(I definitely can't grok everything on Stanford's "Analysis of Knowledge" piece; but this section on truth seems like an important distinction to keep in mind)

"Not all truths are established truths. If you flip a coin and never check how it landed, it may be true that it landed heads, even if nobody has any way to tell. Truth is a matter of how things are, not how they can be shown to be."

https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/knowledge-analysis/

@gilesvangruisen @earthlingworks Yup, I think we're mostly on the same page with this.

There's a distinction between "arbitrary advice" and "genuine knowledge" that feels important.

(BTW - this thread has got me way down the JSTOR rabbit hole https://www.jstor.org/stable/1522873)

@gilesvangruisen @earthlingworks Yes.

Does that mean we can, in turn, give people an understanding of the world that will ameliorate their chances?

For example, market-driven demand has (thus far) been a fairly constant attribute of capitalism. Helping folks understand that earlier; is that helpful?

@gilesvangruisen @earthlingworks Broadly that feels right.

But there are iterative/cumulative effects of work & luck that make the story a lot more interesting.

Even "making the right choice" is a mixture of luck, skill, experience, knowledge, etc.

Every new variable introduces a myriad of possible outcomes.

@earthlingworks Success seems multifaceted, cumulative; making it difficult to describe in a linear way.

For example, "knowledge" is important.

But sometimes you seek the wrong knowledge. Sometimes knowledge finds you. Knowledge often compounds; but an external var can disrupt what you know.

@earthlingworks Don't you think there are other factors beyond work and luck?

@earthlingworks These options feel too binary, and denotes a spectrum where "hard work" is on one side, and "luck" is on the other.

"Hard work" as a blunt measurement isn't nuanced enough. (Coal miners work harder than I ever will)

Lots of other vars: knowledge, experience, frequency/exposure

@pbmarcano Before we commit to a wholesale, worldwide shift to our economic system, we should ensure we're not committing ourselves untenable energy demands (climate-wise).

Using greener energy sources for crypto also suffers from the "induced demand" problem.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand

@Shpigford @earthlingworks @mariordev @valsopi It’s interesting to me that we (as individuals) seem to coalesce around the same 3-4 elements (as opposed to other things), which makes it feel less related to our “personal feelings/opinions” and (perhaps?) more culturally or evolutionarily based?

@Shpigford @earthlingworks @mariordev @valsopi Is it "100% subjective?"

In North America, the definition of success seems to coalesce around a few common elements:

freedom, purpose, financial margin, etc...

Say what you will about @SamHarrisOrg, but his critique here is on point.

Tech humanism is full of hubris; imagining utopian solutions for the world, but disconnected from consequences if it goes wrong.

"If it all unravels, they can hide in their New Zealand compound."

@mariordev @earthlingworks @valsopi I think "working smart" misses an important nuance:

In business, no matter how "hard" or "smart" you work, it's the momentum in a given market that will ultimately determine your trajectory.

Recognizing the pull of a market often means being exposed to/immersed in it.

@earthlingworks @valsopi I haven't read this book, so I'm not sure if the lesson being described is completely transferable to business, but here's what I mean:

The more you immerse yourself in something, the more things tend to happen naturally. Opportunities emerge organically out of your experience.

@earthlingworks @valsopi To me, this excerpt is an example of immersing yourself in practice and principles.

Practice: being in motion, learning intuitively what to do.

Principles: playing the game (business) by its underlying structure/rules (market-driven).

@pbmarcano The conclusions that Lyn is deriving from the Cambridge study aren't accurate.

They identify the limitations of their data here:

"More research and data is needed to assess how the global redistribution of hashrate affects the energy mix and carbon intensity of the network."

@pbmarcano Sorry, but this isn't solid science.

Lyn is an investment advisor (and she's using old arguments)

The IEA has had numerous criticisms from the scientific community (#Criticism)" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Energy_Agency#Criticism)

Science is the process of experts rigorously vetting data, assumptions, and theses.

RT @lovevalgeisler: 3 years later and we’re still here. I invite you to read this whole thread. We center sexual assault and reproduction o…

@EspreeDevora @lexrodba @dasjoshua @ZyoniK_ @Reis2Occasion @jamonholmgren @ItsGenis @SquadCastFM @Zach__Moreno @AlbanBrooke I’ve been using @RogueAmoeba’s Audio Hijack Pro. They have a “denoiser” setting.

@kylefox @mckinneycraig I’m trying to listen to it now.

This… does not feel like an intelligible vision of the future to me. Lots of “word salad;” incoherent rationally.

(At least, for me)

@kirkbyers Yeah; I still haven’t seen that with crypto either.

@JoseCanHelp Who’s that?

And how will they deal with the induced demand problem?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand

@uwwgo @ummjackson How will decentralization help us ward off the climate crisis?

I wish climate tech produced the same kind of fervor as crypto.

Crypto's carbon footprint is a big concern for me, and still isn't even close to being solved.

(Vitalik says "PoS will only be a small part of the solution." 😰)

https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/1433244210568720386

Definitely read @kylefox's whole take:

https://twitter.com/mijustin/status/1433616885736685568?s=20

@SteveSaretsky Isn't that what we're on twitter for? 😉

RT @mijustin: To paraphrase @kylefox’s whole take:

“Crypto could be big, but that remains to be seen. Either way, we’re probably at the “h…

@brhea @kylefox Still some things holding me back: the environmental cost is the biggest one.

Until I better understand how that works, I can’t commit.

@Aazarshad Yes, @kylefox’s analogy of us being in the “http://pets.com stage” of the hype cycle: https://twitter.com/mijustin/status/1433642998122774535

@ianlandsman Yes. I think @kylefox’s take has been the one that’s moved me the most: https://twitter.com/mijustin/status/1433642998122774535

To paraphrase @kylefox’s whole take:

“Crypto could be big, but that remains to be seen. Either way, we’re probably at the “http://pets.com peak” of the hype cycle. Once this wave crashes, we’ll see if anything useful & enduring emerges.”

☝️ that’s a refreshing tone

@ow @kylefox Yup. That’s why I went to Kyle in the DMs.

His is take was refreshing:

“Crypto could be big, but that remains to be seen. Either way, we’re probably at the “http://pets.com peak” of the hype cycle. Once this wave crashes, we’ll see what emerges.”

@mattwensing @einarvollset @cdixon I like @kylefox’s analogy here.

This example definitely gives me pause. https://twitter.com/mijustin/status/1433615007074373634

@terrybmurray @kndwindev But, a wire is basically free these days?

This theory, from @kylefox, is compelling; definitely makes me reevaluate how I think about the future of crypto. https://twitter.com/mijustin/status/1433616885736685568

"Tech (obviously) eventually turned into a Real Thing™, (due to a number of factors).

I think it remains to be seen whether or not crypto can do that – but there's lots of interesting tech, and lots of real problems that it could(?) solve."

"The dotcom bubble was driven by suits who had nothing to offer except hype, and they oversold everyone (including themselves).

But the hackers didn’t really care. The bubble burst, the grifters skipped town, and the hackers kept hacking.

☝️ It could be the same with crypto."

"A lot of the dotcom boom & bust was excitement around all the things that could theoretically be possible with the internet.

There was a lot of (irrational?) optimism baked into the valuations of companies at the time because people had these wild fantasies of what was to come"

Ok, @kylefox and I were chatting in the DMs, and his crypto analogy makes sense to me.

"I don’t think we’re in the 'BBS days' of crypto; I think we’re in the 'http://pets.com days' of crypto."

👉

@DanielZarick @shahruz What questions should I be asking?

(I am asking more questions... but you say I'm asking the wrong questions?)

@DanielZarick @shahruz Entirely possible I’m asking the wrong by questions.

If I’m wrong, I’d love to know. 😄

@DanielZarick I'm just curious about all this.

Why do you think crypto is getting more hype/investment than other emerging tech with potential?

(Quantum computing, large-scale AR/VR, carbon capture, etc.)

@einarvollset @ianlandsman @cdixon Ok. I dig this example (you're starting to incrementally sway me, haha).

But how come crypto is getting more hype/investment than other emerging tech with potential?

(Quantum computing, large-scale AR/VR, carbon capture, etc.)

@DanielZarick We should jump on a podcast to talk about this. 😄

@DanielZarick But that’s the thing. It wasn’t actually that big of a jump at the time.

“It’s like listening to the radio, but I can customize the shows I listen to.”

I don’t see “small iterative jumps” like this with crypto.

Instead, I’m getting a lot of “giant world-changing” evangelism.

Good point: how come most crypto communities use Discord?

Surely a decentralized blockchain equivalent exists? https://twitter.com/fabiogiolito/status/1433576180255428613

@zherring You’re not helping me see it. Lol.

In the early in 1990 (before the web) I had an email address and so my grandpa and aunts got an email address to so we could write.

What the widespread use-cases?

@itsssDas - don’t care about savings yields; making good return on investments
- wired money yesterday through @BankMercury – fast and free
- recurring revenue in SaaS and other subscription-based models already works?

Kudos to the crypto PR department though:

Cartoon apes is way better than laser eyes. 👍

@zherring What are they using defi for?

@mattwensing @einarvollset @cdixon I could see that. My parents definitely didn’t understand my BBS usage. 😆

Do you know normal people using crypto tech?

(aside from buying it as investment on Robinhood, Wealthsimple, etc)

What are they using it for?

I see very little real-world usage outside of the crypto bubble.

Curious if I’m just not seeing it?

@einarvollset @cdixon Do you know normal people using crypto tech?

What are they using it for?

I see very little real-world usage outside of the crypto bubble.

@ianlandsman @einarvollset @cdixon Ian, what’s going to drive adoption?

I don’t see a path right now for widespread usage.

It’s still incredibly niche (besides folks buying it as an investment vehicle - often in investment accounts where they can’t “use” it)

@einarvollset @cdixon The difference is that in 1997, 102 million people had a computer. Only 18% of people had the internet, but that translated into 36 millions subscribers for AOL that year.

I don’t know a lot of regular households using crypto right now (besides buying it like they buy stocks)

@einarvollset @cdixon You’re misunderstanding me.

*Something* has to drive adoption. For Web 2.0, it was widely available broadband (largely funded by the government).

I’m not saying govt involvement is always necessary to drive adoption… but it often helps; we’re seeing the same with electric cars

@einarvollset @cdixon Similar to what the interstate provided for the auto industry.

Government funding and programs made widespread broadband a reality and paved the way for 2.0.

#Government_policy_and_programs" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_the_United_States#Government_policy_and_programs

Web 2.0 occurred because of the proliferation of broadband in America.

https://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia/term/web-20

@einarvollset @cdixon Traditionally, it's govt investment/subsidies that "lead the change."

They invest before there is widespread usage, and help create the infrastructure that facilitates adoption.

(network infrastructure, interstate hwy for cars, subsidies for electric car manufacturers)

@wslyvh @cdixon @MetaMask Whoa..

Any way to verify that number? 10M monthly active users seems incredible (for a product I’ve never heard of 😜)

Not saying it’s impossible… but surprising!

https://www.assetservicingtimes.com/assetservicesnews/digitalassetsarticle.php?article_id=12202&navigationaction=digitalassetsnews&newssection=Digital%20Assets

@efreyreg @RphGrc Thinking from a consumer’s perspective: will they see “gas fee” as substantially different than “management fee?”

@efreyreg @RphGrc Will regular consumers see "gas fees" as the same thing as a "management fee?"

@zherring @wslyvh @cdixon Traditionally, it's govt investment/subsidies that "lead the change." They invest before there is traction, and help create the infrastructure that undergirds widespread adoption.

(internet, highways for cars, subsidies for electric car manufacturers)

.@cdixon identifies a few of web3's constraints, but misses the biggest one: adoption.

Without widespread adoption (by "regular" folks), the promise of web3 won't work.

Government funding of internet infrastructure stoked web 1.0/2.0 adoption. How will that happen with web3?

@zherring Not saying that. Just saying that so far, open-source/decentralized alternatives haven't gained widespread adoption.

Even the most successful versions of open-source projects (WordPress) have a centralized/for-profit entity behind them.

@zherring @wslyvh @cdixon Yes! The big problem with web 1.0 and 2.0 was "access to the internet."

Governments invested heavily in infrastructure (especially high-speed internet) which is what, ultimately, made web 2.0 work: widespread internet access meant regular people were online.

@nelsonjoyce @packyM Yeah. And until this stuff really gets solved... (and we see actual "I have an eth wallet" adoption widespread in the public), I can't see how this will work?

@zherring It doesn't have Twitter's scale/reach/adoption.

@RphGrc What's a practical example of that? How will that feature make a regular person's life better?

@wslyvh .@cdixon identifies a few limitations, but misses the most potent constraint: adoption.

Without widespread adoption (by "regular" folks), the promise of web3 won't work.

Government funding of internet infrastructure stoked web 1.0/2.0 adoption. How will that happen with web3?

Also: do decentralized apps work, at scale, in practice?

Example: Twitter already has a decentralized competitor (Mastodon) that hasn't gained traction.

Is there something about traditional apps/biz models that make them succeed despite open-source/decentralized alternatives?

@falicon Ok, but what does that look like, practically?

For example, Twitter already has a decentralized competitor (Mastodon) that hasn't gained traction.

Is there something about traditional (centralized) apps that make them more compelling/attractive for widespread use?

@hanakimis Here's one description that seems accurate:

https://ethereum.org/en/developers/docs/web2-vs-web3/

@CupOJoseph Are there some examples of this happening already?

If these are community-run; will "founders" be a thing of the past? Who will lead these new apps?

Will funding be a thing of the past? If not; why would VCs fund apps like this?

@webby2001 hahaha. the math checks out!

@yarobagriy I don't understand what you mean.

As in: online communities (like Twitter, MegaMaker, etc) will now be owned equally by users?

How will that work?

I really don't get the hype around web3.

(I was around for the advent of the web and and "web 2.0" and was excited about both)

If you're a web3 believer, what's compelling about it for you?

@tony_xiao @shar_dara @alka_app https://twitter.com/mijustin/status/1432826320040480775

Love seeing word-of-mouth referrals like this from new @TransistorFM customers. 🥰

🗣️ "Transistor was recommended to me by a friend who is using it to host their podcast."

Thanks for signing up @assortedgoodspc!

https://transistor.fm/?via=justin

Live: giving some SaaS marketing/SEO advice to @janostlund and his product: F-Bar https://www.pscp.tv/w/c_6sInR3LTE3MDQ2MDcyfDFCUkpqQm1PZGRRSncwNSraWxvBgZU3jmhWOxNKa1snrjKiLBuy50iJYAJ7zw==

@arithisandthat Happy birthday! 🥳

My advice to my 29 year-old self: keep meeting people outside your bubble; folks who are working on interesting things. Learn from them! Let them show you what’s possible. ✨

@secos 🤣

👩‍🔬 This is a key tenet of science as well:

"Scientists do sometimes change their minds in the face of new evidence, but this is a strength of science, not a weakness, that scientists continue to learn and to be open to new ways of thinking about old problems."
– @NaomiOreskes

If you're planning on having a picnic, but it rains, you adjust your plans. 🌧️

Likewise, it's necessary for leaders to adjust their plans when they get new information. ⚡

Plans aren't static; variables change. Responding to evolving circumstances is part of life. 🌀

@thejonotron Small expenses I just pay for personally.

@staydecent Yes. Because things change.

Most countries had a reopening plan, but the Delta variant has changed all of that.

Science isn't "static." Viruses evolve. Variables change.

We can't expect plans laid in May to "stay the same;" our response has to evolve (because covid is).

@staydecent Also interesting to look at Israel's original proposal/hypothesis (from March).

"The effectiveness of the green pass may be observed in changing vaccination rates in the coming weeks in different age groups."

☝️ this ended up happening

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2777686

@staydecent It's still voluntary; if folks want to go to nightclubs, sporting events, etc, they can get the passport.

Israel's initial implementation (March - May) helped reach high vaccination rates.

(They've only recently had to reinstate these measures because of Delta spikes)

@KevinHicksSW Interesting! Was the rationale the same?

“It’s just not worth tracking hundreds of small expenses/receipts like this.”

(The writeoffs aren’t worth it)

@staydecent One thing about that video:

It's ok for public officials and scientists to change their mind. When they're presented with new data, new variants, etc... we need them to change their minds!

There's a reason that many global health authorities are considering passports right now.

Every year, this becomes more salient for me:

🤦‍♂️ "Why am I categorizing this $3.83 expense? And why do I have hundreds of other transactions like it?"

https://twitter.com/catthekin/status/1432831179485495297

@catthekin Every year, I realize this more and more.

🤦‍♂️ "Why am I categorizing this $3.83 expense? And why do I have so many other transactions like it?"

A practical example: I used to pay for business lunches / coffee meetings all the time with my business visa.

But... I realized these small transactions end up costing me way more in accounting costs (uploading the receipt, categorizing, reconciling).

I minimize those now.

Fewer receipts, bank statements, expense reports, and transactions means way less work for you and your accountant.

That $5 receipt you kept can end up costing you way more in bookkeeping time / reconciliation.

Doing my business' year-end with my accountant.

Big realization:

"To simplify your accounting, minimize the number of transactions!"

✅ If you can pay for it annually, do it.
✅ Get your Stripe payments once a month/quarterly.
✅ Minimize # of payments.
✅ Use fewer accounts.

@aarondfrancis @arvidkahl @TransistorFM It’s up now! 🙌

https://transistor.fm/podcasts-for-bootstrappers/

@staydecent I wonder if it's a question of resources?

Large-scale testing requires a ton of public health resources (clinics, staff, tests, labs).

@dcrouchca Noted.

I’ve since updated the thread. 👍

@jasonlbeggs @aarondfrancis @arvidkahl @TransistorFM @noplanstomerge 🤣